D5.5 Summary Roadmap of the EU energy system

Summary

The INNOPATHS Roadmap aims to assess the technical and socio-economic feasibility of different, contrasted transformation pathways towards climate neutrality by 2050 and identify if there are robust strategies that are relevant across narratives to achieve deep decarbonisation by 2050. The model-based analysis confirms that the transition to carbon neutrality will result in transformative structural changes across the European economy and requires a significant upscale of all currently available mitigation options combined with emergence of new breakthrough technologies. The ambition of the target is so high that there is no room left for choosing the single best option, as the combined development of all available mitigation options should be accelerated to ensure a cost-efficient transition towards climate neutrality by mid-century. In all scenarios and models, a high increase in electrification of energy end uses, via e-mobility, heat pumps and electrified industry processes, is paramount for deep decarbonization, providing synergies for electricity, transport and buildings sectors, and bringing energy price stability for the demand sectors. Accelerated energy efficiency improvements provide opportunities to reduce the required carbon prices and supply-side investments to achieve CO2 neutrality by 2050. In addition, increased innovation, development and diffusion of currently immature technologies such as e-fuels, (green) hydrogen, CCUS or CDR is required to fully decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, freight transport, aviation and agriculture.