Latest INNOPATHS publications

Leveraging private investment to expand renewable power generation: Evidence on financial additionality and productivity gains from Uganda

Effectively mitigating climate change entails a quick upscaling and redirection of electricity infrastructure investment towards clean power. Given that the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions increases until 2050 will come from low- and middle-income countries, finding cost-effective ways to mitigate climate change while meeting development targets is essential. However, recent research has shown some of the limitations of broad financing mechanisms, such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and existing carbon markets. This has resulted in a growing interest in designing novel investment support schemes, such as modifications of feed-in tariffs (FiTs) that may be more cost effective and better targeted towards particular outcomes when compared to traditional deployment subsidies or broad financing mechanisms. We evaluate the design and outcomes of one such novel support schemes: the GET FiT (Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariff) investment support scheme in Uganda, which has attracted ~ 453 million USD in private sector investment for 17 small-scale renewable energy projects (solar, hydro, bagasse) in only three years. Using financial modelling on detailed project-level data, we find that most projects were additional and would therefore not have been built without the subsidy. In addition, using firm-level panel data, we show that power outages hamper manufacturing performance in Uganda. In the absence of reliable outage-data for the entire Ugandan territory, we use nightlight variations to proxy changes in outages. We show that outages have declined substantially since the introduction of GET FiT. Yet, our analysis also demonstrates that programmes to incentivise additional renewable generation in developing countries funded internationally or domestically should liaise closely with grid authorities to ensure that supply does not outstrip demand.

Written by Benedict Probst, Lotte Westermann, Laura Díaz Anadón and Andreas Kontoleon

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Reducing the Decarbonisation Cost Burden for EU Energy-Intensive Industries

Carbon leakage features prominently in the climate policy debate in economies implementing climate policies, especially in the EU. The imposition of carbon pricing impacts negatively the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries, inducing their relocation to countries with weaker environmental regulation. Unilateral climate policy may complement domestic emissions pricing with border carbon adjustment to reduce leakage and protect the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing. Here, we use an enhanced version of GEM-E3-FIT model to assess the macro-economic impacts when the EU unilaterally implements the EU Green Deal goals, leading to a leakage of 25% over 2020–2050. The size and composition, in terms of GHG and energy intensities, of the countries undertaking emission reductions matter for carbon leakage, which is significantly reduced when China joins the mitigation effort, as a result of its large market size and the high carbon intensity of its production. Chemicals and metals face the stronger risks for relocation to non-abating countries. The Border Carbon Adjustment can largely reduce leakage and the negative activity impacts on energy-intensive and trade-exposed industries of regulating countries, by shifting the emission reduction to non-abating countries through implicit changes in product prices. 

Written by Panagiotis Fragkos, Kostas Fragkiadakis and Leonidas Paroussos

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When subterranean slavery supports sustainability transitions? power, patriarchy, and child labor in artisanal Congolese cobalt mining

Through the critical lenses of “modern slavery,” “dispossession,” and “gendering,” this study examines the contours of power, patriarchy, and child labor in the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). There, a veritable mining boom for cobalt is underway, driven by rising global demand for batteries and other modern digital devices needed for future sustainability transitions. Based on extensive and original field research in the DRC—including 23 semi-structured expert interviews with a purposive sample, 48 semi-structured community interviews with ASM miners, traders, and community members, and site visits to 17 artisanal mines, processing centers, and trading depots—this study asks: What power relations does ASM cobalt mining embed? What are its effects on patriarchy and gender relations? Critically, what is the extent and severity of child labor? It documents the exploitation of ASM miners by the government, the police, and even at times other mining actors such as traders or local communities. It reveals the often invisible gendered nature of mining, showing how many vulnerabilities—in terms of work, status, social norms, and sexual abuse and prostitution—fall disproportionately on women and girls. It lastly reveals sobering patterns of child labor and abuse, again at times by the government or police, but other times by families or mining communities themselves. These factors can at times make cobalt mining a modern form of slavery and a catalyst for social, economic, and even regional dispossession. However, rather than despair, the study also draws from its empirical data to showcase how mining can in selected situations empower. It also proposes a concerted mix of policy reforms aimed the Congolese government (at all scales, including local and national); suppliers and end-user companies for cobalt; and international governments and trading bodies. In doing so, the study humanizes the plight of Congolese cobalt artisanal miners, reveals the power relations associated with the recent mining boom, and also proposes pathways for positive change.

Written by Benjamin K. Sovacool

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Power struggles: Governing renewable electricity in a time of technological disruption

Until recently the regulation, ownership and governance of the electricity sector was subject to long-standing debates between those advocating for a state-owned monopoly at one end and those for market liberalisation at the other. However, this debate has now been disrupted by dramatic developments in low-carbon technologies which pose a potentially radical challenge to the centralised system of electricity and have huge implications for the nature of electricity markets, policy and planning. Within this dynamic we explore how rapid technological shifts and processes of electricity governance and procurement are interacting over time, across scales, across technologies and within the different national political economies of Germany and South Africa. We find that while the nature of Germany’s regulatory framework introduced in the early 1990s prioritised decentralised renewable energy systems with a strong role for community ownership, the design of South Africa’s national programme for the procurement of renewable electricity two decades later has privileged generation projects at the utility-scale, and in turn the large-scale corporate and financial actors that operate and own them. Yet as such dynamics have continued to evolve, more recent policies in Germany have given greater encouragement to large-scale projects built by corporate actors, while in South Africa, small-scale distributed generation has been installed by wealthy consumers in the absence of appropriate legislation rather than because of it. In exposing these complexities, we challenge the assumption that radical low-carbon technological change will automatically result in a reconfiguration of political, economic and social power structures.

Written by Lucy Baker, Andrew Hook and Benjamin K. Sovacool.

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Beyond the Energy System: Modelling Frameworks Depicting Distributional Impacts for Interdisciplinary Policy Analysis

Since the signing of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development by the United Nations Member States and the Yellow vest movement, it is clear that emission‐reducing policies should consider their distributional impacts to ensure a sustainable and equitable growth compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. To this end, the design of environmental and energy policies should be accompanied by an interdisciplinary analysis that includes potential effects on distinct groups of society (defined by income, age, or location), regions, and sectors. This work synthesizes common modeling frameworks used to assess technical, socio‐economic, and environmental aspects in policy analysis and the recent progress to portray distributional impacts in each of them. Furthermore, the main indicators produced by each method are highlighted and a critical review pointing to gaps and limitations that could be addressed by future research is presented.

Written by Roland Cunha Montenegro, Panagiotis Fragkos, Audrey Helen Dobbins, Dorothea Schmid, Steve Pye and Ulrich Fahl.

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Temporality, consumption, and conflict: exploring user-based injustices in European low-carbon transitions

The urgency of climate change means that low-carbon transitions are needed in large socio-technical systems such as energy and transportation. These transitions must be rapid, but also fair. An emerging body of evidence suggests that users have important roles in transitions, yet much previous research has examined user involvement while assuming it to be largely a positive force. This goes against a growing amount of evidence within sociotechnical studies that highlight the potentially obstructive or negative role that users may play in transitions and innovation. In this study, we pose a critical question: In what ways may users perpetuate injustices within a transition? To answer this question, we provide conceptual background on energy justice and user adoption of low-carbon energy and mobility technologies. We then analyse users and energy injustices in three low-carbon transitions – solar energy in Germany, electric vehicles in Norway, and smart meters in Great Britain – based on empirical data from interviews, focus groups, and internet forums. Our main contribution is to show how users in low-carbon transitions are not always positively engaged, or even neutral, but can introduce and contribute to inequality and exclusion.

Written by Mari Martiskainen, Benjamin K. Sovacool and Andrew Hook.

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Low-Carbon R&D Can Boost EU Growth and Competitiveness

Research and Innovation (R&I) are a key part of the EU strategy towards stronger growth and the creation of more and better jobs while respecting social and climate objectives. In the last decades, improvements in costs and performance of low-carbon technologies triggered by R&I expenditures and learning-by-doing effects have increased their competitiveness compared to fossil fuel options. So, in the context of ambitious climate policies as described in the EU Green Deal, increased R&I expenditures can increase productivity and boost EU economic growth and competitiveness, especially in countries with large innovation and low-carbon manufacturing base. The analysis captures the different nature of public and private R&I, with the latter having more positive economic implications and higher efficiency as it is closer to industrial activities. Public R&D commonly focuses on immature highly uncertain technologies, which are also needed to achieve the climate neutrality target of the EU. The model-based assessment shows that a policy portfolio using part of carbon revenues for public and private R&D and development of the required skills can effectively alleviate decarbonisation costs, while promoting high value-added products and exports (e.g., low-carbon technologies), creating more high-quality jobs and contributing to climate change mitigation.

Written by Kostas Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Fragkos and Leonidas Paroussos.

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Patenting and business outcomes for cleantech startups funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy

Innovation to reduce the cost of clean technologies has large environmental and societal benefits. Governments can play an important role in helping cleantech startups innovate and overcome risks involved in technology development. Here we examine the impact of the US Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) on two outcomes for startup companies: innovation (measured by patenting activity) and business success (measured by venture capital funding raised, survival, and acquisition or initial public offering). We compare 25 startups funded by ARPA-E in 2010 to rejected ARPA-E applicants, startups funded by a related government programme and other comparable cleantech startups. We find that ARPA-E awardees have a strong innovation advantage over all the comparison groups. However, while we find that ARPA-E awardees performed better than rejected applicants in terms of post-award business success, we do not detect significant differences compared to other cleantech startups. These findings suggest that ARPA-E was not able to fully address the ‘valley of death’ for cleantech startups within 10–15 yr after founding.

Written by Anna Goldstein, Claudia Doblinger, Erin Baker and Laura Díaz Anadón

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Dispossessed by decarbonisation: Reducing vulnerability, injustice, and inequality in the lived experience of low-carbon pathways

This study examines the justice and equity implications of four low-carbon transitions, and it reveals the “lived experiences” of decarbonisation as manifested across Africa and Europe. Based on extensive, original mixed methods empirical research – including expert interviews, focus groups, internet forums, community interviews, and extended site visits and naturalistic observation – it asks: How are four specific decarbonisation pathways linked to negative impacts within specific communities? Relatedly, what vulnerabilities do these transitions exacerbate in these communities? Lastly, how can such vulnerabilities be better addressed with policy? The paper documents a troublesome cohabitation between French wineries and nuclear power, the negative effects on labor groups and workers in Eastern Germany by a transition to solar energy, the stark embodied externalities in electronic waste (e-waste) flows from smart meters accumulating in Ghana, and the precarious exploitation of children involved in cobalt mining for electric vehicle batteries in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The aims and objectives of the study are threefold: (1) to showcase how four very different vulnerable communities have been affected by the negative impacts of decarbonisation; (2) to reveal tensions and trade-offs between European transitions and local and global justice concerns; and (3) to inform energy and climate policy. In identifying these objectives, our goal is not to stop or slow down all low-carbon transitions. Rather, the study suggests that the research and policy communities ought to account for, and seek to minimize, a broader range of social and environmental sustainability risks. Sustainability transitions and decarbonisation pathways must become more egalitarian, fair, and just.

Written by Benjamin K. Sovacool, Bruno Turnheim, Andrew Hook, Andrea Brock and Mari Martiskainen

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The short-term costs of local content requirements in the Indian solar auctions

Developing and emerging economies are implementing local content requirements to spur domestic manufacturing, though their costs and benefits are not well understood and difficult to quantify. Here, we provide an empirical assessment of the short-term costs of local content requirements using a credible counterfactual. We analyse data on government-run solar photovoltaic auctions held in India between 2014 and 2017 and exploit the fact that not all of the auctioned contracts entailed local content requirements. We find that local content requirement policies resulted in a ~6% per kWh increase in the cost of solar photovoltaic power generated from those projects when compared to similar projects not subject to the same local content requirement policy. During this three-year time period, Indian solar panels remained around 14% more expensive than international panels. We found some evidence of short-term increases in domestic manufacturing capacity, yet during this short period Indian firms did not increase market share or break into export markets.

Written by Benedict Probst, Vasilios Anatolitis, Andreas Kontoleon and Laura Díaz Anadón

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