D 1.3 Sectorial Analysis Draft Report

Summary

This report describes patterns of diffusion of energy technologies in a set of future scenarios, and historical diffusion dynamics of a range of energy technologies. The report covers scenario projections, and historical diffusion dynamics, in five broad sectoral areas: power generation, heat in buildings, industrial energy demand, transport, and agriculture.

D 3.5 Report on second participatory co-design workshop

Summary

The INNOPATHS project is developing a set of narratives that describe the possible evolution of the European energy system over the coming decades. This process is heavily informed by stakeholder views, through a series of co-design processes. This report describes the second stakeholder scenario workshop, which was held in London in July 2020. The workshop involved representatives from government bodies from across Europe.

D 2.3 Report on the role of user-driven and inclusive innovation and new business models for the low-carbon transition

Summary

This Deliverable focusses on two distinct issues, in Part 1 and Part 2

Part 1: The role of users and user-based innovation in the heat pump transitions of Finland and the United Kingdom

A typology of user-based innovation hypothesizes five different user types in low carbon transitions: User-producers, user-legitimators, user-intermediaries, user-citizens, and user-consumers. This part had three research questions:

1. Which user types are most salient, and at which times, in the heat pump transition in Finland, and the non-transition in the UK?

2. What types of learning, network development and expectation dynamics occurred, or did not occur, during the transition process?

3. What types of new rules emerged or became de- or realigned within the niche and the regime

The much greater diffusion of heat pumps in Finland compared to the UK is largely the result of sociotechnical factors—cutting across infrastructure, markets, regulation, research incentives and users, backed by user engagement and learning, strong intermediaries and networks, and consistent and credible national policy incentives. In addition, users can have an active role in shaping new markets. This is especially important as policies are not always fully able to reduce uncertainties for users, and can also be susceptible to political changes. The development of an active user base, performing a range of functions from user-producer,

to user-legitimator, user-intermediary, user-citizen to user-consumer is perhaps a more stable predictor of a successful transition process. Users’ role is not only salient in helping to start up transitions, and adopting new dominant solutions and integrating them into their lifestyles, but also in contributing to the acceleration process. Users therefore need to be involved in niche construction, as well as in regime destabilisation.

Part 2: Low-Carbon & Resource-Efficient Food in Cities – Policy Drivers and Barriers to Business

The purpose of this part is to assess how city-level (and where relevant, sub-city level) authorities in Berlin, London and Warsaw have used their ability to set and use strategy, policy and other support to drive or inhibit the development of business activities concerned with low-carbon and resource-efficient food.

Evidence from Berlin, London and Warsaw suggests that low-carbon and resource-efficient food business activities have been growing. Each of the three cities have some form of high-level strategy of relevance to low-carbon and resource-efficient food, either directly or indirectly. However, it appears that such strategies have little direct impact on the development of related business activities. They do, however, appear to be helpful in providing an overarching framework to help guide policy, and as such remain indirectly useful.

Environmental taxes and charges have been successful in London, particularly through the national Landfill Tax, in diverting food waste from landfill and towards anaerobic digestion. An increased focus on such a financial incentive is suggested by stakeholders in all three cities. Although public procurement activities appear to have had a negligible effect in Berlin and Warsaw, they have been a broadly positive force in London. Given the scale of public procurement in cities, stakeholders (particularly in London) suggest refocusing procurement criteria could be a substantial demand driver for these businesses. Business advisory services are present in Berlin and London, of which stakeholders are broadly in favour, particularly in the form of ‘one-stop-shops’ This is underpinned by a common belief by stakeholders in all three cities that there is a substantial economic incentive already present for low-carbon and resource-efficient food, but there is a broad lack of awareness of such incentives.

Stakeholders in all three cities emphasised the role of consumer demand for low-carbon and resource-efficient food (or lack thereof) as a key driver (or barrier). As such, the was broad agreement of the need for further policy to raise awareness through awareness campaigns, but also more specific initiatives, such as prizes and awards.

Overall, stakeholders across all three cities agree that the role of public policy, at any level of governance (EU, national or city), has been relatively limited in encouraging the development of such businesses. and that further policy action would be beneficial, complex if it is to be effective. However, stakeholders in both London and Warsaw stated that an issue perhaps more prominent than the policy landscape in these cities is presence or lack of appropriate political commitment.

Climate policies and skill-biased employment dynamics: Evidence from EU countries

The political acceptability of climate policies is undermined by job-killing arguments, especially for the least-skilled workers. However, evidence of the distributional impacts for different workers remains scant. We examine the associations between climate policies, proxied by energy prices, and workforce skills for 14 European countries and 15 industrial sectors over the period 1995–2011. Using a shift-share instrumental variable estimator and controlling for the influence of automation and globalization, we find that climate policies have been skill biased against manual workers and have favoured technicians. The long-term change in energy prices accounted for between 9.2% and 17.5% (resp. 4.2% and 8.0%) of the increase (resp. decrease) in the share of technicians (resp. manual workers).

Written by Giovanni Marin and Francesco Vona

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D 1.2 Online Technology Matrix Tool (TMT) and Technology and Uncertainties Report

Summary

The Technology Matrix Tool (TMT) developed in the INNOPATHS project (D1.1. and D1.2) has been designed to provide academics, key stakeholders, and policy makers with an integrated tool for analyzing and synthesizing energy technologies relevant for the transition to a low-carbon system. The TMT contains current and future estimated costs on selected technologies from integrated assessment modelling scenarios, learning curve projections, and expert elicitations through to 2050 and beyond. It also includes information on technology uncertainty and other resource and environmental impacts.

D 2.1 Report on workshops for case studies for sectoral and national innovation systems

Summary

“Report on workshops for case studies for sectoral and national innovation systems” presents a summary of the stakeholders workshops which were organized by the INNOPATHS project after the first All Partner Meeting of the project. The stakeholder workshops had two main goals. First, to establish dialogue with key representative of stakeholder groups. Second, to share with the stakeholder the draft of the framework for analysis which was developed by CMCC and UCAM as a basis for the work of Task 2.1 of the project.

D 3.2 Report on online survey of key stakeholders

Summary

Part of the process of the INNOPATHS project is the development of a set of scenarios that describe how Europe might transform its energy system towards a low-carbon future. This deliverable describes the development and outcomes of a survey of key stakeholders, that was used to inform the development of the INNOPATHS scenario narratives.

D 3.4 Prototype of Low Carbon Pathways Platform

Summary

The aim of the Low Carbon Pathways Platform (LCPP) is to make the newly-developed technologically-detailed decarbonisation pathways for Europe easily accessible to stakeholders from industry, policy and society. This document details the initial prototype of the two interactive visualization tools contained in the LCPP: The first tool is a user-friendly visualization interface that allows the users to access all the relevant variables developed in the project models: the scenario explorer. The second, a guided storyline exploration tool, helps users to develop an intuition both for the energy system changes required for a low-carbon transition and for the causes and effects of decarbonization actions in the different sectors and across sectors. It thus provides an entry point for users not accustomed to exploring energy system scenario data, giving them a first experience of how the energy and price quantities actually tell a story of the transformation, of the market developments and the financing needs, of the policy drivers and of the socio-economic effects.

D 3.3 Report on first participatory co-design workshop

Summary

The INNOPATHS scenario narratives are being developed through a co-design process with relevant stakeholders. Part of this process was a stakeholder workshop, held in Florence in February 2018, to discuss key uncertainties and forces shaping the European energy system. This deliverable provides an overview of the stakeholder workshop.

D 1.4 Socio-Technical Analysis Report

Summary

INNOPATHS has a prominent focus on the socio-economic aspect of the low-carbon transition because arguments such as “job killing regulation” and “regressive distributional effects” are often used to undermine the political acceptability of climate policies. Identifying what may have been the distributional impacts of previous energy transitions is a key component of INNOPATHS, since it provides additional empirical support on a crucial aspect of the co-design of scenarios to capture the benefits for the winners and costs for the losers. However, winners and losers of the introduction of different policies and technologies are difficult to identify because a possible low-carbon pathway affects each actor along multiple dimensions. To address this fundamental issue, the deliverable D1.4 attempts to better understand socio-economic impacts along multiple dimensions and actors: regions, households, workers, countries, sectors and stakeholders. The diversity of approaches used to examine problems at different level of aggregation highlights the complexity of the socio-economic impacts. The report is composed of a collection of studies, each examining a particular aspect of the socio-economic impacts of past low-carbon transitions using different methodologies. We can summarize the conclusions of this deliverable into three broad insights reflecting the heterogeneity in the efforts, methodologies and stage of development of research projects presented in this report.

Insight 1: Climate policies do not appear to reduce aggregate employment, productivity and international competitiveness of EU industry and power generation sector. However, our results confirm a long-term employment decline in most carbon-intensive sectors that is likely to be explained mostly by other structural shocks, such as automation and globalization.

Insight 2 : Regarding the distributional effects, climate policies have been skill biased against manual workers and have favoured technicians and professionals. Looking at skill-biased impacts is crucial to assess the political acceptability of climate policies and the vulnerability of certain regions to the low-carbon transition.

Insight 3 : Qualitative empirical evidence reveals that energy injustice is not only an issue for centralized energy production, but also an issue for decentralized energy technologies such as solar energy and EV. Quantitative empirical evidence confirms that subsidies to low-carbon technology, i.e. energy-efficient cars in this case, can be highly regressive, and even more so for EVs (with the caveat on data quality mentioned above).