D3.6 Interactive Decarbonisation Simulator

Summary

The INNOPATHS project uses a stakeholder engagement process to co-design and inform the development of sectorally- and technologically-detailed decarbonisation pathways by 2050 for the European Union and its Member States. To improve the accessibility of model results and facilitate and focus the stakeholder engagement process, E3Modelling developed the Energy System Decarbonisation Simulator (ESDS), which is an online tool that provides an intuitive insight into decarbonization strategies and low-carbon transformations in energy demand and supply for the EU-28 countries by 2050 and 2070. This deliverable describes in detail the ESDS online tool, which has been developed in the Task 3.2 of the INNOPATHS project and summarises some insights emerging from the application of the ESDS to explore low-carbon transition pathways for EU countries in the medium and longer term.

D3.6 Interactive Decarbonisation Simulator

D4.2 Report on social and distributional implications and ways of alleviating adverse social effects

Summary

The INNOPATHS project aims to provide a fully-fledged assessment of the social and distributional implications of ambitious European climate policies and ways of alleviating adverse social effects. In this context, the deliverable D4.2 aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the effects of EU climate policies on the incomes, activity and consumption patterns of firms and households and a detailed evaluation of potential policy instruments to minimize the adverse effects on vulnerable low-income households and trade-exposed industries. This deliverable presents a series of research papers which provide insights on the social and distributional impacts of energy and climate policies towards the transformation of the European Union (EU) economy and society in line with the EU Green Deal and the long-term strategy for climate neutrality by mid-century. The analysis considers both medium- and long-term developments that need to take place to pave the way towards the EU economy restructuring.

D4.2 Report on social and distributional implications and ways of alleviating adverse social effects

D6.8 Summary Report on Final Conference

Summary

The final conference of the INNOPATHS project took place on 31st May and 1st June 2021. It was hosted by the European University Institute (EUI), but was held via Zoom, due to ongoing travel and meeting restrictions across Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic. This report summarises the sessions across the two days of the meeting and contains links to the recordings of the public sessions.

D5.5 Summary Roadmap of the EU energy system

Summary

The INNOPATHS Roadmap aims to assess the technical and socio-economic feasibility of different, contrasted transformation pathways towards climate neutrality by 2050 and identify if there are robust strategies that are relevant across narratives to achieve deep decarbonisation by 2050. The model-based analysis confirms that the transition to carbon neutrality will result in transformative structural changes across the European economy and requires a significant upscale of all currently available mitigation options combined with emergence of new breakthrough technologies. The ambition of the target is so high that there is no room left for choosing the single best option, as the combined development of all available mitigation options should be accelerated to ensure a cost-efficient transition towards climate neutrality by mid-century. In all scenarios and models, a high increase in electrification of energy end uses, via e-mobility, heat pumps and electrified industry processes, is paramount for deep decarbonization, providing synergies for electricity, transport and buildings sectors, and bringing energy price stability for the demand sectors. Accelerated energy efficiency improvements provide opportunities to reduce the required carbon prices and supply-side investments to achieve CO2 neutrality by 2050. In addition, increased innovation, development and diffusion of currently immature technologies such as e-fuels, (green) hydrogen, CCUS or CDR is required to fully decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, freight transport, aviation and agriculture.

D4.1 Report on assessment of low-carbon pathways for economic growth, industrial competitiveness and employment in EU countries

Summary

The INNOPATHS project aims to provide a fully-fledged assessment of the technology, policy, energy and socio-economic impacts of decarbonisation strategies for the EU. In this context, the deliverable D4.1 aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the activity growth, employment, trade and competitiveness effects of current and future European energy and climate policy measures. This deliverable presents a series of research papers which provide insights on the socio-economic impacts of climate policies towards the transformation of the European Union (EU) economy in line with the EU Green Deal and the long-term strategy for climate neutrality by mid-century. The analysis is not limited to the long-term developments, but also considers the mid-term developments (up to 2030) that need to take place to pave the way towards the restructuring of the European economy towards decarbonisation. In addition, the analysis explores the socio-economic impacts of past and current energy and climate policies, in particular related to the impacts on employment, skills, trade, carbon leakage and embodied emissions. Finally, the research papers present new methodological improvements developed in the task 4.1, both related to advanced econometric and statistical techniques as well as beyond the state-of-the-art modelling enhancements in the macro-economic GEM-E3 model which allow an improved representation of energy system transformation, climate policy instruments, financial sector and endogenous technology progress induced by innovation.

D5.3 Synthesis report of the broad insights and analysis of WP3 and WP4

This Deliverable D5.3 synthesised and summarised the work undertaken in INNOPATHS Work Packages 3 and 4, and the insights deriving from them. It reviewed the four different narratives of deep decarbonisation created by the project through a process of co-design with stakeholders: New Players and Systems; Incumbents; Efficiency and Sufficiency; and Europe of Multiple Speeds. From the narratives, scenarios were modelled using the models mentioned below, and outlined the two different online tools produced to facilitate the development and exploration of scenarios in general (Energy System Decarbonisation Simulator) and the four scenarios (Low Carbon Pathways Platform). Many improvements were made to three energy system/Integrated Assessment Models used in the project: PRIMES, REMIND and ETM-UCL. The models were then used to model the INNOPATHS scenarios above. Additionally, a number of detailed sectorial models were used to undertake new studies of decarbonisation in different sectors: electricity; buildings (residential and commercial sectors); transport and industry, with the key industrial sub-sectors studied being iron and steel, non-metallic minerals (including cement), chemicals and petrochemicals, and pulp and paper.

D4.4: Report on governance of low-carbon transitions and infrastructure development

Summary

City-level decisions are crucial for delivering a low carbon transition, particularly as urban population dynamics and environments change in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ensuring appropriate governance structures, mechanisms and resources to facilitate these decisions is therefore essential. Based on a systematic literature review by van der Heijden (2019), this report develops a simple framework to assess the state of ten enabling factors for effective urban climate governance, and applies it to low-carbon passenger mobility in London and Freiburg.

D3.9 Report on decarbonisation in the transport sector

Summary

The INNOPATHS project is using an intensive process of stakeholder engagement and co-design in order to inform the development of technologically-detailed decarbonisation pathways for Europe out to 2050. Building on the stakeholder-developed narratives, state-of-the-art energy-economy-transport models will develop quantitative scenarios leading towards low-carbon transformation pathways. In addition, sector-specific tasks focus on improving the model representations of the transition dynamics in specific energy demand and supply sectors, including technology parameterization, demand evolution and enrichment of representation of sector-specific policies and measures.

This deliverable presents a series of research papers which provide insights on how the overall EU transport sector can drastically reduce carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) until 2050 and analyse the influence of technological progress and specific transport policies for decarbonising passenger and freight transport. The analysis is not limited to the long-term developments, but also considers the mid-term developments (up to 2030) that need to take place to pave the way towards the restructuring of the transport sector towards decarbonisation (for instance technology development, infrastructure building and setting policies). In this respect, we present case studies in which we explore how the transition towards low-carbon transport technologies can take place, already in the decade 2020-2030. Finally, the research papers present new model enhancements, which allow an improved representation of policies and new technologies and fuels (as well as their impacts) in the context of drastically reducing transport CO2 emissions by 2050.

D2.6 Decarbonisation Policy Evaluation Tool [DPET] ) previously referred to as the “Policy Assessment Framework Online Tool”

Summary

This deliverable summarizes insights from the systematic literature review of the environmental, technical and socio-economic impacts of policy instruments that are being considered to foster transitions to carbon neutral economies—work that was carried out under T2.5 of the INNOPATHS project. It also presents and describes the Decarbonisation Policy Evaluation Tool (DPET), an online tool that was also developed as part of T2.5 and also contains all the data collected and coded as part of the systematic literature review process.

D2.2 Prototype of Policy Evaluation Tool [Online Tool]

Summary

This deliverable presents and describes the prototype for the Policy Evaluation Tool (PET) which has been developed in the INNOPATHS project.

The PET was designed to be an integrated, interactive and open online platform to be used by policy makers, industry representatives, researchers and the general public across Europe. The online tool gives guidance as to what can be expected from a wide range of different low-carbon policies. This includes both past policies and future policy options. Given the scope of the INNOPATHS project, the main focus of the tool is on the EU, but policies from other countries may be considered as well. This online tool helps policy makers and other stakeholders get a clear idea what kinds of policies, and at what strength, will be required promote technical progress in low-carbon technologies, and their widespread diffusion.