Comparing expert elicitation and model-based probabilistic technology cost forecasts for the energy transition

Forecasting is essential to design efforts to address climate change. We conduct a systematic comparison of probabilistic technology cost forecasts produced by expert elicitation and model-based methods. We assess their performance by generating probabilistic cost forecasts of energy technologies rooted at various years in the past and then comparing these with observed costs in 2019. […]

Channeling diverse innovation pressures to support European sustainability transitions

Innovation patterns and processes must be aligned, and harnessed and accelerated across multiple domains to address our climate objectives and wider sustainability challenges. In this Perspective, we draw from original case studies on specific technologies and their related innovation systems in agriculture, buildings, electricity, ICT, industry, and transport across Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United […]

The impact of energy prices on socioeconomic and environmental performance: Evidence from French manufacturing establishments, 1997–2015

This paper evaluates the impacts of large increases in energy prices on socioeconomic and environmental performance of French manufacturing establishments over the period of 1997–2015. We identify energy price effects using a shift-share instrument for establishment-specific prices. Our results highlight trade-offs between environmental and socioeconomic goals: increases in energy prices reduce substantially energy consumption and […]

User innovation, niche construction and regime destabilization in heat pump transitions

Domestic heating systems require a rapid shift to low-carbon options to meet global climate targets. We analyse a heat pump transition in two contrasting case studies: Finland and the United Kingdom, utilizing original data from interviews, document analysis, and archival online data. Finland has an almost completed transition, while the United Kingdom can be considered […]

Volatile Photovoltaics: Green Industrialization, Sacrifice Zones, and the Political Ecology of Solar Energy in Germany

The development of solar energy has been depicted as a paradigmatic break in unsustainable global growth, largely because it is framed as an innovation with minimal carbon emissions. On the contrary, drawing on literatures from spatial justice and political ecology, including on authoritarian populism, this article analyzes the rise and fall of the solar industry […]