Narrative-driven alternative roads to achieve mid-century CO2 net neutrality in Europe

The tightened climate mitigation targets of the EU green deal raise an important question: Which strategy should be used to achieve carbon emissions net neutrality? This study explores stakeholder-designed narratives of the future energy system development within the deep decarbonization context. European carbon net-neutrality goals are put under test in a model comparison exercise using […]

The effect of differentiating costs of capital by country and technology on the European energy transition

Cost of capital is an important driver of investment decisions, including the large investments needed to execute the low-carbon energy transition. Most models, however, abstract from country or technology differences in cost of capital and use uniform assumptions. These might lead to biased results regarding the transition of certain countries towards renewables in the power […]

Equity implications of climate policy: Assessing the social and distributional impacts of emission reduction targets in the European Union

The implementation of determined or ambitious environmental policies may lead to regressive distributional impacts, disproportionately affecting low income population groups. The imposition of additional taxes on energy products affects negatively low-income households that face funding scarcity, increasing the risk of energy poverty. In this study, the state-of-the-art general equilibrium model GEM-E3-FIT is significantly expanded to […]

Comparing expert elicitation and model-based probabilistic technology cost forecasts for the energy transition

Forecasting is essential to design efforts to address climate change. We conduct a systematic comparison of probabilistic technology cost forecasts produced by expert elicitation and model-based methods. We assess their performance by generating probabilistic cost forecasts of energy technologies rooted at various years in the past and then comparing these with observed costs in 2019. […]

Channeling diverse innovation pressures to support European sustainability transitions

Innovation patterns and processes must be aligned, and harnessed and accelerated across multiple domains to address our climate objectives and wider sustainability challenges. In this Perspective, we draw from original case studies on specific technologies and their related innovation systems in agriculture, buildings, electricity, ICT, industry, and transport across Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United […]